2024 Panama Election: Real Estate Impact

The May 2024 Panama elections are officially a wrap. As a real estate professional in Panama, I’m cautiously optimistic about the new administration, though still somewhat shocked.

Here are my top takeaways from the 2024 Panama presidential election and predictions on the new government’s impact on the real estate industry.

2024 Panama Election Results, Explained

The new president of Panama is Jose Raul Mulino who was originally going to be (former president) Ricardo Martinelli’s running mate. Ricardo Martinelli as our readers will remember was Panama’s president during a booming period in Panama’s history. Despite being in political exile in Nicaragua Ricardo Martinelli still retains a very strong following in Panama. Strong enough, in fact, that many believe he is behind Mulino’s victory.

And while the international investment community seemed to support the win (as reflected in a spike in Panama’s bond prices), there are still a few unknowns that I for one would like to see resolved pretty quickly.

First of all, something I’ve never seen before: Mulino ran without a vice president. The supreme court confirmed his legitimacy just days before, which was the reason for this. So, according to him, he
“Didnt have time to name a running mate.”

He skipped all presidential debates and, like his tenure as Martinelli’s security minister, has remained a man of few words.

One promise he’s been very public about is the closing of the Darien Gap to illegal migrants heading north.He will receive ample US support (read: money) for the initiative, but managing the vast jungle will be a complex, multi-jurisdictional humanitarian headache.

Another initiative he’s just announced is a reopening of the mines that closed last year in order to pay the fines and close them again. The copper and gold mines, as our readers recall, were closed last year due to massive protests. However, their closure has also left a corresponding budget gap to fill.

Mulino (and Martinelli) are pro-business, pro-investment, and pro-infrastructure, so expect significant spending once Mulino takes power in July.

Silver Lining For Panama’s Real Estate Market

Panama’s real estate market, for the last 30 years, has been historically fueled by non-Panamanians. During the 80’s, there was mass immigration from countries like Nicaragua. By the early 2000’s, US and Canadian investors were snapping up what was still perceived as inexpensive real estate. In 2010, a massive immigration wave of wealthy Venezuelans occurred. Then, in 2023, it was the Colombians.

The economy, fuled by foreign direct investment was on fire during the Martinelli years. 

I for one usually associate any first term president’s “hot” economy with his predecessor, but you got to give it to the guy. Martinelli was the genius behind the Friendly Nations Visa, considered a game changer for immigration. Martinelli was also the orchestrator for some of the most iconic public works projects in Panama such as the Metro and the Cinta Costera. 

And those are the kind of policies that move the needle on the real estate market. So considering Mulino is Martlinelli’s “guy” we can expect similar policies and initiatives from Mulino over the next 5 years.

Big public works projects lead to job creation, and when those projects are awarded to foreign companies, that means workers need properties for rent in Panama.

Easy immigration policies and paths to citizenship can also be a boon to real estate markets already considered attractive to foreigners.

Party Poopers Or Fresh Initiatives in Panama’s Assembly

The National Assembly saw huge turnover in terms of ousting the old guard, with a total of only 13 reelections. Twenty independent candidates were also elected, an unprecedented event in Panama.

This could be a huge step in the right direction in terms of the accountability and transparency that Panama’s legislative arm has been missing. Or it could become a political and sectionalized quagmire full of first term newbies, none of whom have the political clout and relationships to get anything moving.

I for one am very optimistic about the new state of our Asamblea Nacional (Congress). Lots of young politicians, a seemingly supportive (remaining) old guard, and some very innovative ideas involving transparency and accountability being thrown around.

As the old expression goes “Una escoba nueva barre bien,” which means a new broom cleans well.

Let’s see!

Panama City, Panama’s New Mayor

I’m also very optimistic about Mayer Mizrachi as Panama’s new mayor. He’s young, connected, and exuding the right “transparency” vibes, which could truly transform the Panama political machine.

He has an incredible backstory, including six months in a Colombian prison on charges later proven falsified by his political adversaries. He is also Martinelli’s nephew. Yet, Martin Torijos, Martinelli’s adversary and former president of Panama, formally endorsed Mizrach.

How’s that for not choosing sides?

He’s got a tech background and he had a lot of good things to say during his campaign.

The mayor must be the city’s top salesperson, and I believe Mizrachi can attract new investment and unprecedented growth to Panama City.

Optimistic for me, in fact, is an understatement. I think this guy could turn things around and put us in a direction to position Panama City as not only a tech-hub but a modern, diverse, vibrant cultural capital of the region. And that positioning is always good for real estate.

The fact Mizrachi is related to the man behind the man in the presidency should create alignment and some political momentum. He will also have alot of support and allies in Congress.

Panama Real Estate Takeaways From the Election

As we digest the outcomes of the May 2024 Panama elections, it’s clear that while there are uncertainties, there are also significant opportunities for Panama’s real estate market. 

The election of Jose Raul Mulino, with his connection to the influential Martinelli and his bold policy proposals, alongside the fresh, promising leadership in Congress and Panama City could signal a new era of growth and development. 

For real estate investors and stakeholders, staying informed and agile is crucial to navigating potential market shifts from new public works, laws, and investment incentives.

Stay tuned for more updates here!